It's not perfectly clear, but from the sound of this article, it looks as if Netscape will be able to, at the flick of a switch, dynamically alternate between embedding either the MSHTML ActiveX control or the Gecko rendering engine within the viewport of it's browser. They were quick to admit that this was obviously a windows-only solution, and it seems like the marketing spin AOL is taking is that it'll provide the user with the "best of both worlds" or some crap like that.

Well, so let's think about this for a minute. The average internet surfer on windows sticks with the one web browser that comes with their PC, IE. Those who don't use IE are savvy enough to know that there are other options and needs no guidance to take advantage of them. However, these savvy users compose of the minority, and not even all of them can ditch IE completely because of websites that are designed to only work well on IE (try uploading 200 photos to shutterfly or see if you can sanely browse the MSDN library with FireFox). Since the savvy users know that not everyone can completely move away from IE without finding alternatives to all these IE-only services, they're hardpressed to go to great lengths to convince other people into using browsers like FireFox (unless they truly enjoy becoming a 24/7 tech support person for all their friends and families, of course).

Now then, what is it that Netscape thinks they're doing? Well, it's not too difficult to imagine the suits rubbing their hands and saying that all they care about is that they somehow get people to use Netscape as their default browser, and hit netscape.com whenever they open it up. Sure, but how? Well, the take on their strategy seems similar to the Victoria's Secret's lovely tag line; it's you, only better. They're trying to present their product as something that doesn't bring about potentially disruptive changes to the daily lives of average internet surfers, whilst providing them with benefits that should be considered as substantial as a clevage enhancement. They know that they don't have much chance of convincing somebody who's using IE to swtich to a browser that may break on websites they routinely visit. So now they can say, "Oh, just think of it as... uhm... IE 7!" Most surfers could care less what rendering engine they're using or how standards compliant their browser is, so long as the site they visit works, and the browser provides them with the features they need for a pleasant surfing time in an intuitive and responsive manner. If AOL really wants to take away IE's marketshare, they should probably do some intensive research to keep up-to-date on websites that only work well on IE and devise a scheme to automatically switch to the MSHTML control when visiting those sites and default to Gecko otherwise. (No, it's not going to be easy, but taking away marketshare never was) One could also think of a case where if a page tries to load an activeX control and fails, it will then go ahead and ask the user if they want to try and "recover" from the error and then try it again with the MSHTML control. It could get slightly weird, as this would mean inconsistent browsing experience on other plaforms such as Linux and Macintosh, but if they're really serious about taking away marketshare from Microsoft, this kind of bold move will go a long way.

Then, for a moment, let's assume that they did take a bold step into taking advantage of this hybrid architecture. So what? That doesn't mean Netscape will now automagically prop up on your desktop, right? So initially, the only marketshare they're going to be able to get is Netscape users who are upgrading (yeah, all 1.2% of them), web developers who find it useful as a development tool (most of which may well already be non-IE users), and some FireFox users who, right now, constantly have both browsers open because they frequent websites that require IE and just can't take it anymore. And even this is a big "IF", in that if the performance and usability of the next Netscape sucks as much as the previous one, it'll just tank anyway. Wait, then did that really do much damage to the IE marketshare? It sure doesn't look like it. Then how the hell is Netscape going to compete? One word: partnership.

To be quite frank, unless the new version of Netscape is leaps and bounds better than FireFox in terms of usability, it's doubtful that they can take away much of FireFox's marketshare. A good chunk of FireFox enthusiasts who are web standards purists will cry foul over how Netscape is just muddying the water by breathing new life into the outdated version of IE and its beloved quirks mode. Other FireFox users will simply see no motivation to switch. Now you can argue that we're looking at the wrong slice of the pie, and that the average IE userbase is the, you know, bigger piece of the pie. Fine then, let's say you're one of the novice Dell PC users using MSN Explorer, a glorified IE that happens to be the default browser on Dell machines, on a daily basis, and you're more or less content with it. You do hear some news about security issues with some sort of a, er... hyperactive control on X or what not, but they're all greek to you. What incentives do you have to abandon your trustworthy explorer for Netscape on your own? Not much really... Although Dell comes installed with Netscape, if the miniscule size of Netscape userbase is any proof, it is highly doubtful that many actually switch their default from MSN Explorer to Netscape. However, what FireFox doesn't have, but Netscape does, is corporate power, namely AOL. Now AOL is going to have to weave its corporate muscles, start an ad campaign, word of mouth viral marketing, whatever and figure out a way to push Netcape as the default browser on newly build PCs by partnering with Dell and other vendors with some misleading marketing blurbs that make it sound as if it's IE 7.

If this new offering is indeed solid in terms of usability and performance, Netscape just might have built a trojan horse, and they've got some serious work to do to convince the citizens of Troy to let them deliver the goods. Oh, yeah, and let's just hope that AOL starts to believe in eating its own dog food.